TED Talks
(Note: Banner by Andrew)
TED (Technology, Entertainment, Design) is an annual conference featuring some of the most interesting thinkers thinking today. Speakers range from filmmakers, game designers, industry leaders and scientists to politicians, humanitarians, philosophers and comedians. On the TED site you can see hundreds of great talks from the conference. However, I stumbled upon a great site that features ten really good ones.
I want to specifically direct you to talk #5, Technology’s Long Tail by Chris Anderson of Wired Magazine. I’d like you to watch it and tell us how his understanding of market trends might fit with our recent discussions about convergence—about devices diverging, about new technologies being absorbed by either older or newer technologies. How does Anderson’s four-part continuum help us understand the changes that are presently taking place in the marketplace, and how the future might look?
HOWEVER, if you’d like to watch any of the other videos on this page OR THE TED SITE (link above) and give us a summary (a couple paragraphs), please do so instead. The point is, this is one way the Internet has made it easier to share vital information—maybe even information that can change your view of the world.
Chris Anderson’s understanding of market trends definitely fits in with our recent class discussions about convergence. His four-part continuum helps us understand the present changes taking place in the marketplace. If you think about it, most of the technology we see to day has gone through at least one of these stages. He used the example of the DVD. It started off very expensive, fell below $400, hit it’s critical mass a year later, and by 2001 it finally outsold the VCR. Now a days, DVDs are becoming cheaper and cheaper, close to free. I think a good example of these continuum would be cell phones. I don’t know the specifics on this technology but it seems to have followed a similar pattern. When cell phones first started out, they were very expensive. When it fell below the critical price it became more affordable to the people. Following falling below the critical price it will reach it’s critical mass. It displaces the older technologies such as home phones. I know in my house I don’t even have a land line. We only use our cell phones. Finally, cell phones are becoming more and more affordable. Today, phone companies will give you a free phone for signing a contract. The price has definitely become a lot cheaper over the years. I imagine the iPhone will see similar results replacing normal cell phones without wireless internet capabilities.
Keeping in mind these 4 stages of technology, I’m guessing that the future holds the same thing. New technologies will continue to be developed and displaced existing technologies. The prices will start off high but become affordable and once the technology is on the mainstream market, it too will become nearly free. I think Anderson’s market trends will really help guide the market of technologies.
The video entitled “Technology’s Long Tail” by Chris Anderson of Wired Magazine can be related to some of our class discussions on the convergence of various modern technologies. More specifically, Anderson’s in depth understanding of marketing trends helps contribute to the knowledge we have gained in class. For instance, all of the growth examples he presented in this video usually displayed the conflict between new developments and the old, more common technologies of the past. In every graph Anderson showed the audience that the products in question would undergo a continuous cycle of diverging and then being absorbed by other new, more advanced innovations.
The four-part continuum that Anderson discusses in this video also helps further our discussions by coming up with a formula to help understand and attempt to predict the digital marketplace. Through using the concepts of Critical Price, Critical Mass, Another Technology, and Free, entrepreneurs as well as those who study convergence will be able to foresee the formations of new technologies. If this theory continues to hold true, the future will consist of more technology that continues to outsell those products who have already attained “Free” status through a never-ending cycle of advancement. The result will not necessarily be one advanced product, but instead, many that through competition will attempt to make better technological innovations for human beings.
I watched video #10, which was a discussion entitled “What’s so funny about the web?” by Ze Frank. The description of the video said that Frank was supposed to be talking about spam, Google rankings, and web toys, but I think I missed all of that. Frank basically said that he was an internet guru. He’s made online games in the past, and he demonstrated some of his work on a big screen and the conference. Frank also pointed out how important the internet is to a lot of us. It’s so widespread and frequently used. For example, he made a silly website contest, and during the course of three weeks it had over 500 entries. It wasn’t about anything important either! The title of the contest was “when office supplies attack”. I didn’t really understand the point of Frank’s speech, except that it was supposed to make us aware of something in a funny way. He mentioned that Google is “getting smarter” and soon it will be able to tell us what we’re about to search for or think. However, I think that this was one of his jokes too. Overall, I think that Frank was trying to demonstrate how the internet connects us. We can communicate with people that we don’t even know from all over the country and the world. When we post something on the web, it becomes available for everyone to see. With the internet, we have begun forming a lot of superficial relationships that are based on a stupid video or picture online. While this may be a good thing, we need to be careful of all the “spam” and falsified, worthless things online.
Chris Anderson proposed a specific four-part continuum at the 2004 convention in Monteray California that is used to describe the average “lifespan” of any technology. This continuum consists of the following stages:
1.)falls below critical price
2)rise above critical mass
3.)displaces another technology
4.) commoditizes and becomes free
This fits our technology discussion in class because we have consistantly addressed the issue of “convergence” and ellimination of different forms of media to make way for new, improved ones. For instance, we could consider the Chemically produced picture Vs. the digital one. The original camera, the chemically developed one, has recently been almost replaced by the digital one. Digital cameras are also becoming cheaper and “commoditize” and are becoming more affordable to buy and print. The digital camera has made it easier for the average person to publish media on websites, create slide shows, and share information over the internet, which are some marks of convergence.
This presentation is incredibly relative to all the talks we have had this year. It for the most part lays out a timeline for the various steps of convergence. This “timeline” shows the new technology growing and overtaking other technologies. Also th presentation demonstrates the effects at different stages. For example Netflix was able to grow and overtak movie rental stores as the price of DVDs got low enough. Their new small size made them able to be shipped efficiently and still turn a large profit.
After watching this video, I am now more aware about just how much time has an affect on technology. It makes sense though; time brings about new technologies and new programs, which make older technologies not “as good” or “out of date.” The effects of timing have created the convergence we are currently learning about. The technologies evolve into one to make things easier in this new day in age. It all goes in a cycle too- a product falls below the critical price, rises above the critical mass, another technology arises, and once it becomes “out of date,” the price drops till it is nearly free in order to keep selling it. Just look cassettes or VHS players. People keep asking for newer technology, new features, and easier ways to access them all at one time, creating the need for convergence. This all shows that the future holds endless possibilities for technology. However, with the four-part continuum, the future could create pressure for technological demand and a separation from reality with everything right at our fingertips.
What’s so funny about the web?
This speech is about some of the fun things you can do with the internet. Ze Frank shows clips of silly dancing, he draws with “scribbler” and he Googles an audience member. He entertains and shows ways to distract yourself using the internet, he shows how using the internet can be a viceral experience.
This on the surface is just a funny, comic relief piece, but it is about being creative and collaboration- collaborative creative effort over the internet. Ze Frank creates a way for people to creatively socialize via the internet.
Chris Anderson raised a number of interesting points in “Technology’s Long Tail” that are very relevant to our discussions about convergence. His four-part continuum (falling below critical price, rising above critical mass, displacing another technology, and commoditizing and becoming free) can really be applied to any technology. He gives a great example with the DVD. Once that technology became more affordable, it began to displace the VCR. As time has gone on, DVDs have become less and less expensive. When they were first gaining popularity, DVD players and VCRs were even converged in the form of combination players, so people could have one device for their old videos and their new DVDs. Now DVD technology is expanding even more with the introduction of HD-DVD and Blu-Ray Disc.
This continuum can be applied to other forms of media as well. CDs overtook cassette tapes, and now CDs are being pushed aside in favor of downloadable music that can be put onto an i-pod or MP3 player. HD technology is affecting the way we watch TV. When my mom and I had to buy a new TV over the summer, the salesperson informed us that we should get a TV with HD capabilities because by sometime in 2009 all TVs will either have to have HD capabilities or be connected to a kind of HD converter box. I also really like the fact that Anderson applies the continuum to technologies beyond media, like with his examples of hybrid cars and more affordable medication. His continuum works when looking at any technology, and it can help us predict future outcomes as new technologies continue to replace old ones.
Chris Anderson’s talk hits the nail on the head as far as convergence goes. Basically, his four steps map out the route that all new technology will take on the way to total convergence, the final frontier. Essentially, when the culture absorbs it as a norm. I was particularly interested in the statistics about anti retro viral drugs. They started at an exorbitant price, but then generic drugs came out and prices dropped. Now you can get them for less than $.50 a day. All of the examples that he talked about followed the same pattern. It is all very logical.
I watched video #5 with Chris Anderson. I found it oddly humorous that the video was made in 2004; I had to continue to remind myself of that fact when he mentioned “$30 was a cheap DVD”.
At any rate, I thought the 4 measurements of technology were interesting. It seems to hold true that every technology, whether fully or partially, goes through this process.
The displacement step is one that I think is most important. Many technologies are presented in the market, experience a price rise or fall, may or may not sell well, and ultimately end up free. But a technology’s real lasting power and effect comes from the displacement of an older, less usable version of technology.
Displacement, sometimes unfortunately, is how technology evolves and changes drastically as it has over the past 20 years. Now, however, there is less displacement and more convergence of many technologies into one. So that step of displacement may not hold as true as it once did. But that is how we can know if a technology is truly different and innovative.
The video I chose to respond to is #4 - “Toys That Make Worlds” by Will Wright. In his speech, Wright basically gives the audience a preview of his new game “Spore.” In the game, you literally start out as a cell and grow into an evolved creature. By the end of the game, you are designing not only the creature, but entire galaxies.
Wright explains that the purpose of this game is to give players a perspective on life - how their actions now can result in consequences long after our traditional human lifespans. By giving players the hands of God, Wright is enabling them with the ability to see the world from its greatest and most complete perspective.
One of the main points Wright makes in his speech is how players feel empathy for things they create. No other medium quite has this ability. Video games are probably the best example of digital media converging. There is both video and audio, but also the interactive side that allows players to control what is going on. Many games even have an internet-like aspect where they can play against other people from around the globe. The important thing is though, video games let the consumer create part of the product. They become attached to it personally because in a way, they are the product.
What is really interesting is that just the other day my cinema class was also talking of how DVDs overshadowed video cassettes. “Technology’s Long Tail” also cleared up a few other things for me. I had no idea that it wasn’t until 2001 that DVD players outsold VCRs, I thought it was earlier then that. It was also really interesting to that Netflix, a no-name company that tried something new, home delivery DVDs, and it payed off when they topped Blockbuster. But I myself would not be surprised if Netflix were to shut out by another company when something new comes out in a decade or so.
I found Chris Anderson’s talk ,”Technology’s Long Trail,” very interesting. The four-part continuum that he used through out his talk was very helpful in making me understand current market trends and their relation with technological convergence. As our class is surrounded by the idea of different forms of technology converging, Anderson highlights the 4 part continuum: Critical Price, Critical Mass, Displacement, and Free. All important pieces of technology go through at least one of these 4 stages. For example, Anderson used the invention of the DVD. When DVD’s first hit the shelves, the consumer would pay a lot of money for the new form of technology that was slowly but surely replacing the regular tapes. Then, the price fell in 1998 and the percentage of households around the country with a DVD player shot up. Finally, the consumer now had a reason to buy home theater units and big screen televisions. Netflix came about and no name brands such as APEX became well known.
Basically, one simple piece of technology transformed the market. And it is with this idea of convergence that it did so. As far as the future goes, I think his talk shows us, as consumers, older technologies will continue to be “absorbed” by newer technologies and more and more devices will come out in the end, continuing these market trends.